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Interpopulation Variation in the Thermal Physiology of Chinook Salmon

Institution University of California, Davis
Advisor Dr. Nann Fangue
Period 2015 – 2022
Funding EPA · CDFW · Yuba Water Agency · ~$444K

Are California's Chinook salmon populations physiologically distinct — and does that matter for their survival under a warming climate?

Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) are one of California's most ecologically and culturally important species — and one of the most imperilled by climate change. As rivers warm, questions about which populations can tolerate higher temperatures, and why, have become urgent management priorities.

My dissertation research tackled this question at scale, designing and conducting some of the largest metabolic performance experiments ever performed on teleost fishes. Working across eight hatchery populations spanning California's diverse river systems, I measured aerobic scope, thermal performance curves, and critical thermal maxima to ask whether populations differ physiologically — and whether those differences reflect local adaptation to historical thermal environments.

The answer was a clear yes. Populations differ substantially in how they perform across a temperature gradient, in ways that are consistent with adaptation to local conditions. These findings have direct implications for how we prioritize conservation and manage water for salmon under ongoing climate warming.

Main Takeaways

California's Chinook salmon are not one fish — they are many physiologically distinct populations that cannot be managed as though they were interchangeable.

This body of work shifts the conversation in salmon conservation from species-level thermal thresholds toward population-specific physiological profiles — a more accurate and ultimately more protective framework for management under climate change.

1
Thermal physiology varies meaningfully among populations Populations from historically warmer rivers tolerate and perform better at higher temperatures than those from cooler systems — a pattern consistent with local thermal adaptation rather than random variation.
2
Seasonal runs are physiologically distinct Winter-run Chinook — already Endangered — show the lowest thermal optima and greatest sensitivity to warming, making them disproportionately vulnerable to climate change and extreme heat events.
3
Aerobic scope and acute tolerance are independent traits A population's ability to survive a brief heat spike does not predict how it performs under sustained warming. Both metrics are needed for a complete picture of thermal vulnerability.
4
One-size-fits-all temperature thresholds are insufficient Current water management frameworks often apply single species-wide thermal limits. This work provides the empirical basis for population-specific physiological criteria in conservation planning.
01
Review · 2021 · Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries

One Size Does Not Fit All: Variation in Thermal Eco-physiology Among Pacific Salmonids

Background & Motivation

Before embarking on empirical work, it was essential to understand what was already known about thermal variation in salmonid physiology. This review synthesized the existing literature on thermal performance across Pacific salmon species and populations, with a focus on whether and how physiology varies with thermal environment.

Approach

We reviewed studies measuring aerobic scope, critical thermal maxima, gill oxygen uptake, and other performance metrics across multiple salmonid species and populations, synthesizing findings across California river systems and the broader Pacific coast.

Key Results

The review revealed substantial — and systematically underappreciated — variation in thermal physiology among and within salmonid species. Critically, this variation was not random: it tracked historical thermal environments in ways consistent with local adaptation. The review identified major gaps in the literature, particularly around intraspecific (within-species, among-population) variation, and laid the conceptual groundwork for the empirical studies that followed.

This paper has since become a key reference for California salmon management and for researchers designing population-level physiological assessments.

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Figure 1
Upload images/salmon-fig-review-map.jpg — e.g. map of California populations included in the review
Figure 1. Add your caption here describing what the figure shows.
02
Empirical Study · 2023 · Conservation Physiology

Intraspecific Variation Among Chinook Salmon Populations Indicates Physiological Adaptation to Local Environmental Conditions

Study Design

Eight hatchery populations of juvenile Chinook salmon were acclimated to a common set of temperatures and measured for aerobic scope — the difference between maximum and resting metabolic rate — across a thermal gradient spanning their ecologically relevant temperature range.

This is one of the largest metabolic performance experiments conducted on any teleost fish, involving hundreds of respirometry trials across populations and temperatures. All fish were treated identically in terms of acclimation, feeding, and measurement protocols, ensuring that observed differences reflect true physiological divergence rather than environmental conditioning.

Results

Populations showed clear and statistically significant differences in their thermal performance curves. Populations from historically warmer river systems tended to have higher optimal temperatures for aerobic performance and maintained aerobic scope at higher temperatures than populations from cooler systems. This pattern is consistent with local thermal adaptation — fish are physiologically tuned to the temperatures they evolved in.

Importantly, no single population performed best across all temperatures, suggesting real trade-offs in thermal specialization.

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Figure 2
Upload images/salmon-fig-tpc.jpg — e.g. thermal performance curves across populations
Figure 2. Add your caption here.
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Figure 3
Upload images/salmon-fig-map.jpg — e.g. collection site map with mean summer temperatures
Figure 3. Add your caption here.
03
Empirical Study · 2023 · Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

Interpopulation Variation in Thermal Physiology Among Seasonal Runs of Chinook Salmon

Study Design

California's Chinook salmon are divided into four seasonal "runs" — winter, spring, fall, and late-fall — that differ in their timing of ocean entry, river migration, and spawning. These runs encounter very different temperature regimes during their freshwater residency, providing a natural experiment in thermal adaptation.

This study compared thermal physiology among populations representing each seasonal run, using the same aerobic scope framework as Study 02 but with a focus on whether run-timing is associated with distinct physiological profiles.

Results

Seasonal runs did show physiological differences consistent with the temperatures they encounter during their freshwater life stages. Winter-run Chinook — which migrate and rear in the coldest conditions and are listed as Endangered — showed the lowest thermal optima and the greatest sensitivity to warming temperatures, highlighting their particular vulnerability to climate change.

These findings provide a physiological basis for understanding why different runs respond differently to thermal stress, and why a one-size-fits-all thermal threshold for water management is insufficient.

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Figure 4
Upload images/salmon-fig-runs.jpg — e.g. comparison across seasonal runs
Figure 4. Add your caption here.
04
Empirical Study · 2024 · Frontiers in Fish Biology

Patterns of Interpopulation Variation and Physiological Trade-offs in the Acute Thermal Tolerance of Juvenile Chinook Salmon

Study Design

This study moved beyond aerobic scope to examine acute thermal tolerance — how much heat fish can withstand over a short period before losing equilibrium. Critical thermal maximum (CTmax) was measured across populations using standardized ramping protocols. Critically, the same fish used for aerobic scope measurements were also assessed for CTmax, allowing direct examination of the relationship between these two performance traits.

Results & Trade-offs

As with aerobic scope, populations differed significantly in CTmax, and these differences tracked historical thermal environments. However, the study also revealed an important physiological trade-off: populations with higher CTmax did not necessarily have better aerobic performance at high temperatures, and vice versa. These traits appear to be at least partially independent, reflecting distinct underlying mechanisms.

This has important implications for conservation: a population that can survive a brief heat spike may still suffer physiological costs that impair its long-term growth and reproduction under chronic warming. Management strategies that rely solely on lethal temperature thresholds may underestimate risk.

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Figure 5
Upload images/salmon-fig-ctmax.jpg — e.g. CTmax by population or CTmax vs Topt scatterplot
Figure 5. Add your caption here.

Project Publications

Peer-reviewed papers arising from this research program

2024

Zillig, K. W., Bell, H. N., FitzGerald A.M., Fangue, N.A. Patterns of Interpopulation Variation and Physiological Trade-offs in the Acute Thermal Tolerance of Juvenile Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha).

Frontiers in Fish Biology

PDF
2023

Zillig, K. W., FitzGerald, A. M., Lusardi, R. L., Cocherell D. E., Fangue, N. A. Intraspecific variation among Chinook salmon populations indicates physiological adaptation to local environmental conditions.

Conservation Physiology, 11(1)

PDF
2023

Zillig, K. W., Lusardi, R. L., Cocherell D. E., Fangue, N. A. Interpopulation variation in thermal physiology among seasonal runs of Chinook salmon.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

PDF
2021

Zillig, K.W., Lusardi, R.A., Moyle, P., Fangue, N.A. One-size does not fit all: variation in thermal eco-physiology among Pacific salmonids.

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries, 31(1)

PDF

Explore the Data

An interactive tool for exploring thermal performance curves across Chinook salmon populations — compare aerobic scope, optimal temperatures, and CTmax across river systems.

Interactive data explorer coming soon

Replace this with your ShinyApps.io iframe when ready

This work raised a new question

If salmon are so thermally robust in the lab,
why are they struggling in the wild?

Most populations — winter-run excepted — showed surprising thermal tolerance under controlled conditions. This gap between laboratory performance and field outcomes drove a new research focus: the ecological constraints that make high temperatures lethal even when the physiology says they shouldn't be.

Project Publications

Peer-reviewed papers arising from this research program

2024

Zillig, K. W., Bell, H. N., FitzGerald A.M., Fangue, N.A. Patterns of Interpopulation Variation and Physiological Trade-offs in the Acute Thermal Tolerance of Juvenile Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha).

Frontiers in Fish Biology

PDF
2023

Zillig, K. W., FitzGerald, A. M., Lusardi, R. L., Cocherell D. E., Fangue, N. A. Intraspecific variation among Chinook salmon populations indicates physiological adaptation to local environmental conditions.

Conservation Physiology, 11(1)

PDF
2023

Zillig, K. W., Lusardi, R. L., Cocherell D. E., Fangue, N. A. Interpopulation variation in thermal physiology among seasonal runs of Chinook salmon.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

PDF
2021

Zillig, K.W., Lusardi, R.A., Moyle, P., Fangue, N.A. One-size does not fit all: variation in thermal eco-physiology among Pacific salmonids.

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries, 31(1)

PDF